Hey crypto addicts,

Has Bitcoin's famous four-year cycle finally broken?

That's the question dominating the market as Bitcoin trades near $60,000, more than 50% below its 2025 peak. Some analysts believe institutional adoption, ETFs, and changing market dynamics have permanently altered Bitcoin's historical cycle, while others argue this is simply another textbook correction following previous halving patterns.

The reality is that no one knows for certain.

Bitcoin has evolved significantly over the past few years, with institutions, public companies, and ETFs now playing a much larger role than in previous cycles. That could smooth out the extreme booms and busts of the past, or it could simply change how they unfold.

History rarely repeats perfectly.

But it often rhymes.

Whether the four-year cycle is dead or simply evolving, one thing hasn't changed: markets continue to move through periods of fear, consolidation, and recovery.

For long-term investors, the bigger question isn't whether the cycle survives.

It's whether today's prices will look cheap a few years from now. ☕

What we’ve covered for you today:

Australia's crypto industry just got a little more breathing room.

The country's financial regulator, ASIC, has unexpectedly given crypto businesses an extra three months to secure the licences required under its updated digital asset rules. The extension pushes the deadline to 30 September, giving firms more time to transition into Australia's new regulatory framework while licence applications continue to be processed.

The move isn't a rollback on regulation.

If anything, it reinforces that licensing is coming, it just gives businesses more time to get compliant without facing immediate enforcement action. ASIC has also expanded the relief to cover more firms operating through authorised representatives and intermediary arrangements.

For the industry, it's welcome news.

Many exchanges, custodians, and digital asset platforms now have additional time to prepare their compliance systems before Australia's broader digital asset framework begins rolling out in 2027.

The direction of travel is becoming clear.

Crypto businesses aren't being pushed out ~ they're being brought into the financial system under clearer rules. ☕

The biggest hurdle for crypto regulation right now isn't politics.

It's the calendar.

Galaxy Digital has lowered its odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year, saying the bill is running out of time rather than running out of support. With the Senate facing a packed legislative schedule before the August recess, there are fewer opportunities to bring the crypto market structure bill to a vote.

The legislation still has bipartisan backing, but it must clear several procedural steps before it can become law. Without a scheduled floor vote and final legislative text, the chances of passage continue to narrow as other priorities compete for attention in Washington.

For the crypto industry, the delay means more waiting.

Companies are eager for clear rules that define how digital assets should be regulated, but until Congress acts, uncertainty remains part of the landscape.

The bill isn't dead.

It's simply racing against the clock.

Kalshi is taking a bigger shot at the global stage.

Through a partnership with ADI Predictstreet, FIFA's official prediction market partner, Kalshi will receive branding across the 2026 FIFA World Cup during the knockout rounds. While Kalshi isn't an official FIFA sponsor, the agreement puts its name in front of one of the world's largest sporting audiences and expands its presence in the fast-growing prediction market industry.

The timing is no coincidence.

Prediction markets have seen explosive growth over the past year, with Kalshi reporting daily trading volumes exceeding $1 billion during the tournament. The company is also expanding its sports partnerships as it pushes toward becoming a mainstream financial platform rather than just a niche trading venue.

For Kalshi, this is about more than football.

It's about introducing prediction markets to millions of new users and proving they can become a major part of global finance and entertainment.

As the industry continues to grow, expect competition between prediction market platforms to become just as intense as the events they're pricing. ☕

Cardano wallet SecondFi says it expects its recovery process to take around two weeks following the recent wallet exploit that affected hundreds of users. The team has completed a final balance snapshot of impacted wallets, secured more than 129 million ADA, and is working with independent security experts to verify claims before restoring user access.

The European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON) is urging the European Commission to assess whether DeFi, staking, crypto lending, and NFTs should be brought under the EU's MiCAregulatory framework. The recommendations also support greater tokenization across financial markets and encourage the growth of euro-denominated stablecoins.

Solana has reclaimed the $72 level after a strong rebound, helped by optimism surrounding tokenized stocks and renewed activity across the ecosystem. However, onchain data suggests the recovery may still be on shaky ground. While price has improved, key network metrics such as total value locked (TVL) and decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volumecontinue to trend lower.

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Nothing heals emotional damage like green candles…